Probabilistic stability analysis of iron ore tailings dams
Dam stability analysis; probabilistic analysis; material uncertainties.
Mining activities accounts for a considerable part of Brazil's GDP. Ore mining activities generate two types of waste, sterile and tailings. Tailings are usually disposed of in tailings dams, mainly because they are a material with a fine granulometry high percentage and are usually transported with a low solid content. Stability analyses, mainly by limit equilibrium methods, are used to legally certify the stability of the structure and are associated with uncertainty factors, especially the ones related to the materials’ geotechnical parameters. The tailings are materials with great variability in geotechnical behavior, given the different ore processing methodologies, spatial and depth variability, methodology and location of its disposal in the reservoir. The probabilistic analyses include methodologies that allow the association of uncertainties to the factor of safety. Thus, the objective of this work is to define probability density functions for iron ore tailings from a dam located in the Iron Quadrangle, using field and laboratory investigations, considering parametric and non-parametric statistical approaches. The generated distribution curves will be applied to probabilistic stability analyses for validation. The expected results are the generation of distribution curves for tailings strength parameters as a basis for probabilistic stability analyses considering tailings dams. The incorporation of probabilistic stability analyses for legal evaluation of dam stability will allow a complete analysis regarding the uncertainties associated with the definitions of the input parameters as well as the probability of failure.