MODEL FOR QUANTITATIVE DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT
Disaster, risk assessment, decision making, MCDA-C.
Disasters are adverse events that occur all the time around the world, from a lesser or a greater extent. Its economic, environmental and social consequences can be enhanced due to the vulnerability of each site. In the city of Belo Horizonte, the Civil Defense carries out a preventive work that aims to mitigate the occurrence of the disasters themselves or to minimize their impacts. To this target, this organization receives daily telephone calls that inform about the disasters that occurred or about the risk of their occurrence. Based on a subjective and qualitative risk assessment, performed by the attendants, teams of professionals are allocated to attend the cases. As this risk, assessment is based on the opinion of each attendant and is not measurable or comparable with others in quantitative terms, the allocation of these teams may be erroneous in some cases. With this in mind, seeking a more assertive action, it is necessary for Civil Defense to carry out this primary disaster risk assessment quantitatively and objectively. This quantitative risk assessment can be performed using a model that uses the Multicriteria Decision Support - Constructivist Methodology (MCDA - C). This methodology aims to support the decision based on the knowledge of the decision makers. With this model, the Civil Defense established its decisions in more objective and numerically measurable aspects, which would generate a more effective action and, consequently, the greater prevention of disasters or minimization of their consequences.