Banca de DEFESA: Ivan Fernandes da Cruz

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : Ivan Fernandes da Cruz
DATA : 30/08/2019
HORA: 16:30
LOCAL: Sala 401, prédio 17, 4º andar, Campus II, Av. Amazonas, 7675, Belo Horizonte – MG
TÍTULO:

Investments in Photovoltaic Solar Distributed Energy Generation Projects: impacts of the decision-making

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Electrical Matrix, Photovoltaic Solar Power Generation, economic and financial viability and Monte Carlo Simulation.

PÁGINAS: 232
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
ÁREA: Administração
RESUMO:

Currently, the Brazilian electricity matrix is predominantly hydroelectric, with a share of over 63%. This implies huge climate dependence, as well as thermal power plant activation at times of rationing, increasing the cost of the tariff. On the other hand, it is observed that the source of photovoltaic solar distributed power generation, which Brazil has abundant resources, such as territorial space and good level of irradiation, still has incipient participation in the Brazilian electric matrix, around 0.14%, according to the National Energy Balance (2018). Therefore, this research sought to structure a financial viability model, aiming to support decision making in investments of solar photovoltaic distributed power generation, as well to provide an analysis of the impacts for the energy distributor and for the State (Federal and State). For this purpose, this research was developed through a quantitative investigation, which included a sample of 1,973,766 UC's consumer units, in 773 municipalities of Minas Gerais, in concession area of Cemig Distribuição S.A., from 151kWh to 500kWh consumption range. The sample period used was 2018. The feasibility analysis was performed considering three different perspectives: consumer, energy distributor and the State. The analysis was supported by the following financial indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback, along with the Monte Carlos simulation for the following variables: equipment and installation price, inflation and minimum attractiveness rate. In addition, some scenarios were performed considering variations in the kw price. In conclusion, from the consumer perspective, for the 25-year time series, which was the one adopted for cash flow, all UCs were financially viable. The lowest PayBack and the highest IRR, per mesoregion, were respectively 6.36 years and 22.19%. When applying the SMC, there was a slight positive change in results, around 3% compared to the base scenario. The analysis from the perspective of the distributor and the State, in addition to the SMC already performed, proposed scenarios with reduction and increase of the tariff value, which allowed to verify reduction of revenue loss and collection, as well as a performance decrease of the financial indicators. This enables the discussion of trade-off between tariff reduction for customer retention in the current system versus tariff increase or maintenance and the possibility of customer migration to the photovoltaic solar power generation system.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - FELIPE DIAS PAIVA
Externa à Instituição - FLAVIA VITAL JANUZZI - UFJF
Interna - LUCELIA VIVIANE VAZ RAAD