Banca de DEFESA: Rodolfo Carvalho Leite

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Rodolfo Carvalho Leite
DATE: 13/09/2023
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Online, por meio de webconferência
TITLE:

The influence of the Overconfidence bias of decision makers in the banking sector on their perceptions of Risk Management in these institutions

KEY WORDS:

Behavioral Economics; Banking Institutions; Corporate Risk Management; Decision-Making Process

PAGES: 104
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUMMARY:

The objective of this work was to analyze how the overconfidence bias of professionals in the Brazilian banking sector, involved in decision-making under risky conditions, affects their perceptions about the Risk Management of these institutions. To achieve this objective, the discussion included theory and empirical studies on the risks inherent in the financial market, risk management in banking institutions and decision-making processes – normative and descriptive theories – through a quantitative approach of a descriptive nature. The research is justified insofar as the investigated institutions (banks), which are central to the financial system, play an important role in the development and stability of the nation and, also, because they have been, in the face of technological advancement, dealing with new threats, which should be incorporated into the management framework of these institutions. To measure the perception of Risk Management and the Overconfidence Bias, with a consecutive study of the relationship between them, two scales were used. The perception of Institutional Risk Management among bank employees was measured using the Macquarie University scale, which comprises four dimensions – Appreciation, Disregard, Proactivity and Management. The measurement of the levels of overconfidence bias through a questionnaire with 21 dichotomous questions, followed by the measurement of the degree of certainty, according to the theoretical-methodological perspective of the work Calibration of Probabilities. The results evidenced the presence of overconfidence bias in bank employees, in addition to a perception of valuing risk management within organizations, in which risk problems and events are proactively identified and addressed, however, some risk problems and policy violations they are occasionally ignored, minimized, or dismissed. In these organizations the immediate manager is often an effective role model of desirable risk management behavior. Finally, no evidence was found that the overconfidence bias has a significant impact on the perception of risk and its management by professionals in the banking sector. Thus, the central hypothesis of this work, which proposed a negative interference, is not corroborated. It is hoped that this study will contribute beyond the traditional focus on risk management, by investigating a new form of risk to which financial institutions are exposed. Furthermore, it is expected to expand risk assessment techniques through a bottom-up view of the current perception of Risk Management.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - DANIEL FONSECA COSTA - IFMG
Interno - FELIPE DIAS PAIVA
Presidente - LAISE FERRAZ CORREIA
Interno - UAJARA PESSOA ARAUJO