Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: JOÃO ANTÔNIO DA SILVA NETO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : JOÃO ANTÔNIO DA SILVA NETO
DATE: 31/01/2022
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/channel/19%3aagfSLbsmAUtKnd8eZJ9lWtofB6Fasiv94_GU1wa1EDo1%40thread.tac
TITLE:

REAL OPTIONS APPLIED TO FLEET SIZING IN MINING

KEY WORDS:

Mine-planning; Fleet sizing; Net Present Value, Commodity price; Real Options Theory.

PAGES: 57
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia de Minas
SUBÁREA: Lavra
SPECIALTY: Lavra a Céu Aberto
SUMMARY:

The evaluation of mining projects is usually undertaken using methods based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology, such as the Net Present Value (NPV). These methods, however, fail to take into consideration, for example, changes in the future economic landscape, which can significantly alter the value of the project. It is also worth noting that mining projects require large initial investments to be developed. Part of these investments need to be allocated to purchase and operation of mining equipment, used for loading and transporting the ore. These costs can contribute to upwards of 60% of the total costs involved in developing the project. In this context, this work aims to develop a methodology that employs the use of Real Option Theory (ROT) in the process of selection and sizing of the loading and haul fleet of a mining company, introducing managerial flexibility in light of changes in the economic scenario. To this end, two pieces of software, Studio OP and NPV Scheduler, both from DATAMINE, were used to obtain the optimal final pit limits, followed by the production schedule through generating pushbacks, each representing a production’s year, thus arriving at the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project. Faced with changes in the economic scenario, expressed by the commodity price, represented by phosphate rock (US$/t), and with the help of Risk Simulator and Real Options SLS software, both from the company Real Options Valuation Inc., it is possible to decide between the options for fleet expansion and contraction, as well as the option stall and to abandon production. It is expected that the results obtained demonstrate that the use of ROT allows flexibility in investment decisions, making it possible to capitalize on opportunities arising from favourable economic scenarios, in addition to reducing possible losses, resulting from large initial investments, which are always subject to a myriad of future uncertainties.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - MARCELIO PRADO FONTES
Interno - ALLAN ERLIKHMAN MEDEIROS SANTOS
Externo à Instituição - LUCIANO NUNES CAPPONI